Best Picture
Who Will Win: The King's Speech
America has officially fallen in love with this charming British film, and the Academy sure does love uplifting English period pieces and making populist choices.
Who Should Win: The Social Network
Everything came together perfectly for this film. Great script, director, actors, cinematography, music, editing, sound design, art design, the whole works. Not a weak link in the bunch.
Doesn't Belong: 127 Hours
Every nomination this film received is basically a way to apologize to James Franco because his powerhouse performance is going to have to lose to Colin Firth. Because other than that performance, this film has no value.
Best Actor
Who Will Win: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Everyone knows he will win. Even poor James Franco knows it.
Who Should Win: Colin Firth
Because he was great, that's why.
Doesn't Belong: N/A
Everyone in this category deserved to be here.
Best Actress
Who Will Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Like Firth, she's had this one in the bag for months.
Who Should Win: Natalie Portman
Like Firth, because she's great. Though if by some insane miracle the Oscars pull one of their occasional out-of-left-field surprise upsets (without which Americans would still have no clue who Marion Cotillard was) and give the award to Jennifer Lawrence for Winter's Bone, my cheers of joy will be heard from several miles away.
Doesn't Belong: N/A
Also a pretty solid list of nominees.
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| Maybe if she gets the award she'll stop doing crap like No Strings Attached. |
Best Director
Who Will Win: David Fincher, The Social Network
He took a movie about people sitting around and talking and directed it like a fast-paced thriller. And it worked.
Who Should Win: David Fincher
Seriously, he builds tension while people are sitting on a dorm room couch.
Doesn't Belong: Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
There is something to be said about a director who is smart enough to just sit back and let your great cast act out a great script. That level of restraint is rare these days. But that shouldn't get you an Oscar nomination. Fincher and Darren Aronofsky are in this category because they took what was great on the page and made it even better on the screen. Hooper is just riding the wave of King's Speech love.
Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Sometimes the public confuses hammy overacting with great acting. The Academy does so regularly.
Who Should Win: John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
A quietly intense, modulated performance from a consistently good but usually-overlooked actor.
Doesn't Belong: N/A
Again, hard to fault any of the acting nominees.
Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
The Academy loves veteran actors making a late-career comeback. And she's definitely a good choice...
Who Should Win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
...but not the best one. Steinfeld is in the wrong category. She was the lead actor of True Grit, moreso than even Jeff Bridges. But knowing that nothing could stop the Portman juggernaut, the film's producers submitted her for this category instead, citing the film as an ensemble piece. Anyone who has seen True Grit knows differently. She's in every scene, stealing the film out from under veteran actors 3 to 4 times older than her. And as such, she dominates over every other performance in this category. Though while Leo seems like a lock for this one (based on how previous awards have been going this season), Steinfeld does have a toe in the door. After all, the Academy are known for handing awards to pretty people who get all uglied up for a role.
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| Your move, Academy. |
Doesn't Belong: N/A
What else can I say? It's a good year for the acting categories.
Best Original Screenplay
Who Will Win: David Seidler, The King's Speech
Because America is in love with it, and the Academy abides.
Who Should Win: Christopher Nolan, Inception
He took a complex concept and multi-layered (in ways both figurative and literal) story and created something that a mass audience could follow without getting lost.
Doesn't Belong: Mike Leigh, Another Year
The final script was mostly transcribed improvisations done by the actors during rehearsal. This award is not for transcription.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
And rightfully so. It's an amazing script.
Who Should Win: Aaron Sorkin
No one expects otherwise.
Doesn't Belong: Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy, 127 Hours
Mr. Franco, the Academy would once again like to apologize. In any other year you'd get the award, but Colin was just so damn good.
Best Cinematography
Who Will Win: Roger Deakins, True Grit
No one can make the old west seem as beautiful as Deakins can.
Who Should Win: Roger Deakins
He's a national treasure.
Doesn't Belong: Jeff Cronenweth, The Social Network
Don't get me wrong, the film looks fantastic. But that's because of Fincher, not Cronenweth. Fincher micromanages every aspect of his films, including cinematography. Cronenweth may have been physically behind the cameras, but he was just doing what his boss told him to do.
The Annual Pixar Award (also commonly known as the Best Animated Feature award)
Who Will Win: Toy Story 3
Here's a hint about how this category will turn out: of the 3 nominees, only one of them was deemed good enough to also be nominated for Best Picture.
Who Should Win: Toy Story 3
See above.
Doesn't Belong: N/A
Kinda hard for a film to not belong when the Academy only allows 3 nominees.
Best Documentary
Who Will Win: Exit Through the Gift Shop
The Academy loves pretentious, self-important art films, and this is as pretentious and self-important as they come. Plus, there are no holocaust documentaries on this list this year.
Who Should Win: Inside Job
Charles Ferguson's last film (No End in Sight) was robbed of the Oscar, and this one will be, too.
Doesn't Belong: Exit Through the Gift Shop
Because in all likelihood it's not actually a documentary, but an art piece created by Banksy.
